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Home listings at four-year October high as sales remain below typical levels

Home sale activity across Metro Vancouver* remained below long-term historical averages in October.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 1,966 in October 2018, a 34.9 per cent decrease from the 3,022 sales recorded in October 2017, and a 23.3 per cent increase compared to September 2018 when 1,595 homes sold.

Last month’s sales were 26.8 per cent below the 10-year October sales average.

“The supply of homes for sale today is beginning to return to levels that we haven’t seen in our market in about four years,” Phil Moore, REBGV president said. “For home buyers, this means you have more selection to choose from. For sellers, it means your home may face more competition, from other listings, in the marketplace.”

There were 4,873 detached, attached and apartment homes newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in October 2018. This represents a 7.4 per cent increase compared to the 4,539 homes listed in October 2017 and a 7.7 per cent decrease compared to September 2018 when 5,279 homes were listed.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 12,984, a 42.1 per cent increase compared to October 2017 (9,137) and a 0.8 per cent decrease compared to September 2018 (13,084).

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for October 2018 is 15.1 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 10.3 per cent for detached homes, 17.3 per cent for townhomes, and 20.6 per cent for condominiums.

Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12 per cent mark for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“Home prices have edged down between three and five per cent, depending on housing type, in our region since June,” said Moore. “This is providing a little relief for those looking to buy compared to the all-time highs we’ve experienced over the last year.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential homes in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,062,100. This represents a one per cent increase over October 2017 and a 3.3 per cent decrease over the last three months.

Sales of detached homes in October 2018 reached 637, a 32.2 per cent decrease from the 940 detached sales recorded in October 2017. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,524,000. This represents a 5.1 per cent decrease from October 2017 and a 3.9 per cent decrease over the last three months.

Sales of apartments reached 985 in October 2018, a 35.7 per cent decrease compared to the 1,532 sales in October 2017. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $683,500. This represents a 5.8 per cent increase from October 2017 and a 3.1 per cent decrease over the last three months.

Attached homes sales in October 2018 totalled 344, a 37.5 per cent decrease compared to the 550 sales in October 2017. The benchmark price of an attached home is $829,200. This represents a 4.4 per cent increase from October 2017 and a 2.8 per cent decrease over the last three months.

Download the October 2018 stats package


*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Whistler, Sunshine Coast, Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, and South Delta. 

The real estate industry is a key economic driver in British Columbia. In 2017, 35,993 homes changed ownership in the Board’s area, generating $2.4 billion in economic spin-off activity and an estimated 17,600 jobs. The total dollar value of residential sales transacted through the MLS® system in Greater Vancouver totalled $37 billion in 2017.


October brings slight bump to sales for Fraser Valley

SURREY, BC – The Fraser Valley housing market saw slight increases in both total transactions and overall inventory this month after sales hit their lowest point for the year in September.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,155 sales of all property types on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October, a decrease of 35.8 per cent compared to the 1,779 sales in October of last year, and a 11.6 per cent increase compared to sales in September 2018.

Of the 1,155 sales, 438 were residential detached homes, 306 were townhouses, and 292 were apartments.

“While slight, this is the first time since May that sales here have been on the upswing.” said John Barbisan, President of the Board. “We’re beneath typical activity levels for this time of year but it’s good to see that buyers and sellers are still finding success this season.”

Active inventory for the Fraser Valley in October finished at 7,746 listings, increasing 1.3 per cent month-over-month and 41.3 per cent year-over-year.

A total of 2,776 new listings were received by the Board in October, a 5.8 per cent decrease from that received in September 2018, and a 12 per cent increase compared to October 2017.

“We’re in a much better spot in terms of overall inventory compared to this time last year, and now closer to a more balanced market. Attached inventory in particular has seen notable gains, doubling year-over-year for townhouses and nearly tripling for apartments.”

For the Fraser Valley region, the average number of days to sell both an apartment and townhouse in October was 31. Single family detached homes remained on the market for an average of 39 days before selling.

HPI® Benchmark Price Activity 

• Single Family Detached: At $986,700, the Benchmark price for a single family detached home in the Fraser Valley decreased 0.2 per cent compared to September 2018 and increased 1.1 per cent compared to October 2017.

• Townhomes: At $538,400, the Benchmark price for a townhome in the Fraser Valley in the Fraser Valley decreased 1.4 per cent compared to September 2018 and increased 7.1 per cent compared to October 2017.

• Apartments: At $432,800, the Benchmark price for apartments/condos in the Fraser Valley decreased 1.3 per cent compared to September 2018 and increased 17.2 per cent compared to October 2017.

Full package:
http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package201810.pdf


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Just as expected, the Bank of Canada announced another interest rate hike last week. The interest rate increase pushed the overnight rate to 1.75%, the fifth increase in just over a year. The overnight rate has more than tripled since bottoming at 0.5% in early 2017. 

This intetest rate increase is exposing growing concerns over average Canadian households and their ability to swim in the debts amongst rising interest costs. It is said the banks desire to reach their neutral rate of between 2.5-3.5%. Recent economic data from the household sector, which has historically been responsible for just over 60% of GDP growth, suggests average households are drowning out in debt. 

National home sales have now sunk to a 6 year low, with particular weakness in both Calgray and Greater Vancouver, where home sales sit at 18 and 22 year lows respectively. The resulting slowdown has prompted savy home builders to start tredding water instead of sprinting like they did 2 years ago as CMHC reports.


Auto sales have declined for seven consecutive months and retail sales volumes have fallen in each of the past three months, now growing just 0.7% Y/Y compared to the greater than 8% growth just over a year ago. 

Total household credit was up just 3.6 percent in September from the previous year, the slowest annual growth since 1983, according to data released Friday by the Bank of Canada. That’s a marked slowdown from 5.8 percent in the middle of last year, and less than half the 8.1 percent historical average. The amount of household credit outstanding, including consumer credit and residential mortgages, is now C$2.15 trillion ($1.64 trillion).

Sources and fruther relevant data:


1. Household credit growth in Canada hits its slowest pace in 35 years.


2. Non-permanent resident growth as a share of total population growth hasn't been this strong since Canada's last housing boom in the late 1980's. What will happen to this cohort if job growth slows?

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Greater Vancouver

The supply of homes for sale continued to increase across the Metro Vancouver* housing market in September while home buyer demand remained below typical levels for this time of year.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in the region totalled 1,595 in September 2018, a 43.5 per cent decrease from the 2,821 sales recorded in September 2017, and a 17.3 per cent decrease compared to August 2018 when 1,929 homes sold.

Last month’s sales were 36.1 per cent below the 10-year September sales average.

“Fewer home sales are allowing listings to accumulate and prices to ease across the Metro Vancouver housing market,” Ashley Smith, REBGV president-elect said. “There’s more selection for home buyers to choose from today. Since spring, home listing totals have risen to levels we haven’t seen in our market in four years.”

There were 5,279 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in September 2018. This represents a 1.8 per cent decrease compared to the 5,375 homes listed in September 2017 and a 36 per cent increase compared to August 2018 when 3,881 homes were listed.

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 13,084, a 38.2 per cent increase compared to September 2017 (9,466) and a 10.7 per cent increase compared to August 2018 (11,824).

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for September 2018 is 12.2 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 7.8 per cent for detached homes, 14 per cent for townhomes, and 17.6 per cent for condominiums.

Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12 per cent mark for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“Metro Vancouver’s housing market has changed pace compared to the last few years. Our townhome and apartment markets are sitting in balanced market territory and our detached home market remains in a clear buyers’ market,” Smith said. “It’s important for both home buyers and sellers to work with their Realtor to understand what these trends means to them.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,070,600. This represents a 2.2 per cent increase over September 2017 and a 3.1 per cent decrease over the last three months.

Sales of detached properties in September 2018 reached 508, a 40.4 per cent decrease from the 852 detached sales recorded in September 2017. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,540,900. This represents a 4.5 per cent decrease from September 2017 and a 3.4 per cent decrease over the last three months.

Sales of apartment properties reached 812 in September 2018, a 44 per cent decrease compared to the 1,451 sales in September 2017. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $687,300. This represents a 7.4 per cent increase from September 2017 and a 3.1 per cent decrease over the last three months.

Attached property sales in September 2018 totalled 275, a 46.9 per cent decrease compared to the 518 sales in September 2017. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $837,600. This represents a 6.4 per cent increase from September 2017 and a two per cent decrease over the last three months. 

Download the September 2018 stats package


*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Whistler, Sunshine Coast, Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, and South Delta. 

Month: 
September
 

Fraser Valley

SURREY, BC – The slowing of sales activity and expansion of overall inventory that has defined much of 2018 for the Fraser Valley housing market continued in September, with sales at their lowest point and inventory at its highest for the year.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,035 sales of all property types on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September, a decrease of 36.1 per cent compared to the 1,619 sales in September of last year, and a 10.4 per cent decrease compared to sales in August 2018.

Of those 1,035 sales, 376 were residential detached homes, 250 were townhouses, and 274 were apartments. This was the lowest number of transactions in a month this year for each category.

“Buyers remain reluctant as the market continues to adjust,” said John Barbisan, President of the Board. “We’re seeing good things happening in terms of inventory, but it only opens the door so much while prices are moving at a much slower rate.”

Active inventory for the Fraser Valley in September finished at 7,647 listings, increasing 4.2 per cent month-over-month and 30.6 per cent year-over-year. This is the highest level of supply for the Fraser Valley since July 2015.

A total of 2,946 new listings were received by the Board in September, a 14.4 per cent increase from that received in August 2018, and a 3.4 per cent increase compared to September 2017’s intake.

“If you want to sell soon, the most important thing you can do to be successful is to price effectively. Talk to your REALTOR® who can help you understand what buyers are looking for in your local market.”

For the Fraser Valley region, the average number of days to sell an apartment in September was 33, and 32 for townhomes. Single-family detached homes remained on the market for an average of 39 days before selling.

HPI® Benchmark Price Activity 

• Single Family Detached: At $988,900, the Benchmark price for a single-family detached home in the Fraser Valley decreased 2 per cent compared to August 2018 and increased 1.1 per cent compared to September 2017.

• Townhomes: At $546,100, the Benchmark price for a townhome in the Fraser Valley in the Fraser Valley decreased 0.4 per cent compared to August 2018 and increased 9.5 per cent compared to September 2017.

• Apartments: At $438,700, the Benchmark price for apartments/condos in the Fraser Valley decreased 1 per cent compared to August 2018 and increased 22.5 per cent compared to September 2017.

Full package:
http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package201809.pdf



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